FOMC Meets As Global Growth Questions Swirl

FOMC Meets as Global Growth Questions Swirl The FOMC meeting concludes this afternoon and we provide some early expectations of what we think we’ll see from the meeting in the sections below. With an updated economic and rate forecast quarter-end meetings always have their fair share of intrigue, even when policy is expected to remain…

Read More about FOMC Meets As Global Growth Questions Swirl

Investors Focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting

Investors Focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Quarter-end FOMC meetings always carry a bit more drama than other meetings, even when a change in rates or policy are not expected, and this meeting should be no different. With refreshed economic forecasts and the infamous dot plots the meeting will provide plenty of information for investors to…

Read More about Investors Focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting

Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week

Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week Just when we thought it safe to conclude taper talks will not be a part of the September FOMC meeting along comes the August Retail Sales Report to bring it back front and center. The sales numbers were better-than-expected and that pressured Treasury prices lower…

Read More about Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week

Inflation and Retail Sales Numbers Highlight the Week

August Inflation and Retail Sales A couple first-tier economic releases will likely garner the most attention from traders this week as the Fed goes into its quiet period before the September 22 FOMC meeting. First, the August CPI numbers will be released tomorrow and the moderation of springtime price spikes that began in July is…

Read More about Inflation and Retail Sales Numbers Highlight the Week

Plenty of Positives Remain in Jobs Picture

Plenty of Positives Remain in Jobs Picture The August employment report was generally considered a disappointment with headline job growth missing forecasts with 235,000 jobs created versus 733,000 expected. The rise in virus cases gets its fair share of blame, and with Leisure and Hospitality job growth flat versus a 350,000 six-month average, there is…

Read More about Plenty of Positives Remain in Jobs Picture

Aftermath of the August Jobs Report

Aftermath of the August Jobs Report The August Jobs report had a little bit for everyone, hawks and doves. On the dove side the obvious big miss on the headline job growth number led the way. The lowest job gain since January fed the narrative that the increase in delta variant virus cases had slowed…

Read More about Aftermath of the August Jobs Report

Will August Jobs Report Bring September Taper Announcement?

Will August Employment Report Bring September Taper Announcement? The August employment report will be released at 8:30 am ET and while a tapering announcement may hang in the balance with this report, it’s more clear after Jackson Hole that the health of the labor market will be key in determining when rate hikes will commence…

Read More about Will August Jobs Report Bring September Taper Announcement?

August Jobs Numbers and Another Read on Consumer Confidence

August Jobs Numbers and Another Read on Consumer Confidence With Jackson Hole now in the virtual rearview mirror, the market will turn to some economic numbers to ascertain when the Fed may start to institute tapering. While the September 22 FOMC meeting could have a taper announcement it’s more likely to come at the November…

Read More about August Jobs Numbers and Another Read on Consumer Confidence

What Will We Learn From a Virtual Jackson Hole Today?

What Will We Learn From a Virtual Jackson Hole Today? The waiting is just about over for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at a virtual Jackson Hole. His prepared remarks will be released at 10am ET but that hasn’t stopped several regional Fed presidents  from front-running the chairman and declaring that tapering should begin…

Read More about What Will We Learn From a Virtual Jackson Hole Today?

All Eyes on Jackson Hole

All Eyes on Jackson Hole There had been speculation as late as a few weeks ago that the Jackson Hole Fed Policy Retreat could be the venue in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell put some meat on the bones of taper talk with dates of initiation and some outline of the speed of tapering asset…

Read More about All Eyes on Jackson Hole

Delta Variant Continues to Weigh on Growth Outlook

Delta Variant Continues to Weigh on Growth Outlook The market continues to take its lead from rising virus cases, both domestically and globally, and that continues to provide a bid in Treasuries as second-half 2021 growth prospects are revisited and marked lower. We take a look at what could be a catalyst for a further…

Read More about Delta Variant Continues to Weigh on Growth Outlook

FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales and that Univ. of Mich. Sentiment Number

FOMC Minutes and July Retail Sales With Congress in recess the only headlines from DC will likely come when the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are released Wednesday afternoon. Recall that meeting didn’t change policy and while tapering was discussed there were no details released in the statement or the post-meeting press conference. The…

Read More about FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales and that Univ. of Mich. Sentiment Number