Correspondent Blog

Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week Just when we thought it safe to conclude taper talks will not be a part of the September FOMC meeting along comes the August Retail Sales Report to bring it back front and center. The sales numbers were better-than-expected and that pressured Treasury prices lower…

August Inflation and Retail Sales A couple first-tier economic releases will likely garner the most attention from traders this week as the Fed goes into its quiet period before the September 22 FOMC meeting. First, the August CPI numbers will be released tomorrow and the moderation of springtime price spikes that began in July is…

Plenty of Positives Remain in Jobs Picture The August employment report was generally considered a disappointment with headline job growth missing forecasts with 235,000 jobs created versus 733,000 expected. The rise in virus cases gets its fair share of blame, and with Leisure and Hospitality job growth flat versus a 350,000 six-month average, there is…

Aftermath of the August Jobs Report The August Jobs report had a little bit for everyone, hawks and doves. On the dove side the obvious big miss on the headline job growth number led the way. The lowest job gain since January fed the narrative that the increase in delta variant virus cases had slowed…

Will August Employment Report Bring September Taper Announcement? The August employment report will be released at 8:30 am ET and while a tapering announcement may hang in the balance with this report, it’s more clear after Jackson Hole that the health of the labor market will be key in determining when rate hikes will commence…

August Jobs Numbers and Another Read on Consumer Confidence With Jackson Hole now in the virtual rearview mirror, the market will turn to some economic numbers to ascertain when the Fed may start to institute tapering. While the September 22 FOMC meeting could have a taper announcement it’s more likely to come at the November…

What Will We Learn From a Virtual Jackson Hole Today? The waiting is just about over for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at a virtual Jackson Hole. His prepared remarks will be released at 10am ET but that hasn’t stopped several regional Fed presidents  from front-running the chairman and declaring that tapering should begin…

All Eyes on Jackson Hole There had been speculation as late as a few weeks ago that the Jackson Hole Fed Policy Retreat could be the venue in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell put some meat on the bones of taper talk with dates of initiation and some outline of the speed of tapering asset…

Delta Variant Continues to Weigh on Growth Outlook The market continues to take its lead from rising virus cases, both domestically and globally, and that continues to provide a bid in Treasuries as second-half 2021 growth prospects are revisited and marked lower. We take a look at what could be a catalyst for a further…

FOMC Minutes and July Retail Sales With Congress in recess the only headlines from DC will likely come when the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are released Wednesday afternoon. Recall that meeting didn’t change policy and while tapering was discussed there were no details released in the statement or the post-meeting press conference. The…

Will Delta Variant Slow Economy as Much as Treasuries Expect? Relying on anecdotal information can be dangerous, especially when trying to extrapolate the impact to an economy as vast and diverse as the US, but we can’t help ourselves. Much of the recent multi-month rally in Treasuries has been conditioned on the belief that the…

Inflation and Infrastructure Now that the July employment numbers are in the books, the market will keep an eye on the infrastructure proposal being debated in the Senate along with the latest inflation data.  If a Senate bill passes it will head to the House for review and vote. The House is unlikely to exact…