Correspondent Blog

The Fed leadership always prefers a unified picture of its members to its policies. Sometimes, however, some skirmishes break out over those policies and other desired directions and I think we are in the midst of such a time.  The Fed governors are still very wedded to the idea of the recent inflation thrust as…

Fed Speak and Another Inflation Number This Week After the FOMC meeting last week—and its two hikes in 2023 scenario—put some volatility into markets, investors will be eager to hear more from Fed officials this week to gain additional color on their thinking. With nine Fed officials set to talk this week we will get…

Did the Fed Just Blink on Inflation? In a stare down contest did the Fed just blink at higher inflation and hence take the edge off their new policy framework? That seems to be the takeaway from all that they delivered on Wednesday afternoon.  Recall the new policy framework they unveiled at Jackson Hole last…

It’s FOMC Day and we delve into more detail below what we think comes of this meeting. This is one of those quarterly affairs where the Fed updates its economic and rate projections and those often provide more insight than the carefully-crafted statement and heavily-scripted post-meeting press conference. Suffice it to say, we think Chair…

FOMC Meeting Headlines the Week The FOMC Meeting on Wednesday will be less about what is said, although any taper talk will get headlines, and more about the updated rate and economic forecasts. While there had been some speculation that the beginnings of taper talk might occur at this meeting it’s not likely with the…

When Is Hot Not So Hot? A hotter-than-expected May CPI came and went and Treasuries sold off, right? Well, no. After a little early knee-jerk selling, buyers quickly came to the fore and Treasuries ended the day with lower yields, even in the face of new 30-year bond supply. What’s going on, you say? Well,…

Will May CPI Change the “Transitory” Narrative? The question for this week is what would it take for tomorrow’s May CPI numbers to change the Fed’s transitory narrative as it pertains to price increases? Expectations are for a solid increase of 0.4% overall and 0.5% core month-over-month, and while that is surely high by historical…

May CPI and Aftermath of the Jobs Report With the Fed going into radio silence ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, that leaves investors more time to pick over the May jobs report and any implications that can be made.  While it missed expectations, it also was better than the mediocre April numbers. That…

May Employment Report Misses Expectations But Better Than April The May Employment Report missed expectations of 675 thousand new jobs with 559 thousand jobs created. Even with the slight miss, the May results are more in line with the upbeat gains from March rather than the mediocre 278 thousand pick-up in April. The average over…

All Eyes on Friday’s May Jobs Report This holiday-shortened week will have all eyes already trained on Friday when we get the May Employment Report. The report will likely set the tone for the upcoming June FOMC meeting on the 16th. Will it be a strong result like March or will it be another mediocre…

April Core PCE Could be Biggest in Decades The market awaits the April Personal Income and Spending numbers later this morning but the biggest nugget will be the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures number (Core PCE). This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and the expected monthly gain of 0.6% would be the largest monthly gain…

Fed Setting the Stage for Big Core PCE Number There has been a lot of Fed Speak this week and it mostly has been focused on the reoccurring theme that near-term inflation indications are transitory and not of long-lived concerns. We think part of the jawboning this week is pointing towards the Friday release of…