Job Gains Back Over 200k but Treasuries Unimpressed

The January jobs report beat expectations but not strong enough to move the Fed off the pause button (think Goldilocks).   Job gains totaled 225,000 in January versus 165,000 expected and 147,000 the prior month. The pop in job growth was a nice surprise after two straight months with gains well below 200,000 and below the…

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Bond Portfolio Trends: Fourth Quarter 2019

Beginning in May 2012 we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at the Correspondent Division of CenterState Bank.  At present, we account for over 141 client portfolios with a combined book value of $10.03 billion, or $71 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months earlier the average portfolio size was also…

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Political Season Is Now Fully Upon Us

The last two days have proven one thing and that is the political season is fully upon us, and the ebb and flow of the race will  have a direct impact on trading direction and momentum. The juxtaposition between the chaos of the Democratic Party’s Iowa coming out party and President Trump’s State of the…

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Jobs, ISMs, and Coronavirus Vie for Market Attention

This week is full of first-tier economic releases but coronavirus headlines will continue to drive market trading more than anything else. Businesses started reacting last week to the spread of the virus and it stands to reason continued moves and developments lay in store this week as well. An economic impact to China is obvious…

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Fed Keeps Funds Rate Unchanged but Adds 5bps to IOER

In a surprise to no one, the Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged today but did tweak the Interest on Excess Reserves higher by 5bps from 1.55% to 1.60%. The tweak was forced on the Fed as the effective fed funds rate was trading at 1.55%, uncomfortably close to the lower bound of the…

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As Fed Meets, Virus Scare Continues

The FOMC rate decision comes later today (2pm ET), and while you can never call a Fed meeting inconsequential, this one is about as close as you can get. No rate change is expected and there will be no update to their rate and economic forecasts so the only information provided will be the post-meeting…

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Virus Scare Continues to Drive Rates Lower

This Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision is not expected to carry much drama. No rate change is expected and the meeting won’t provide an updated rate or economic forecast. What we will get is the post-meeting statement and press conference from Chair Jay Powell. The market consensus is that the Fed will continue to characterize the…

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Virus Concerns Continue to Push Treasury Yields Lower

The latest episode of risk-off trading stemming from the growing concern of a virus spreading out of China is another example of an issue that is hard, if not impossible, to game-plan but nevertheless has considerable impact on Treasury yields. After the trade deal was completed, and many recent economic reports printed in fair-to-good territory,…

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With a Light Data Calendar this Week Impeachment Trial Takes Spotlight

This holiday-shortened week has a dearth of economic data so investors can spend more time focusing on the impeachment trial. Markets have largely ignored the impeachment proceedings as the hearings and votes took place in the U.S. House of Representatives, but now that the Articles have moved to the Senate, and the trial about to…

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Consumer Rescues Quarter With December Spending Surge

After a so-so jobs report and a docile CPI read on inflation Treasuries faced a tougher trading environment yesterday with a solid Retail Sales Report for December and positive comments around the U.S./China trade deal. We go into more detail on the trade deal below but the retail sales numbers for December were encouraging in…

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Treasuries Find Relief in CPI Numbers and Trade Deal Details

The Treasury market is still being led around by the ebb and flow of geopolitical concerns, and  ever-present trade-related news. With some easing in Middle East tensions Treasury yields were initially ticking higher off some unwinding of safe haven trades put on last week when tensions were noticeably higher. That uptick, however, failed to seriously…

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Geopolitical Tensions Ebb

Geopolitical Tensions Ebb But Remain a Factor While the extreme tensions following the U.S. killing of a key Iranian general have subsided, tensions still remain.  While official Iranian military actions may be sidelined for now, they have a roster full of proxy militias no doubt willing and able to conduct smaller-scale havoc. This fact is…

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