Investors Await Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting

Investors Await Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting The FOMC meeting that concludes on Wednesday afternoon has the market’s attention, even though a 25bps rate hike is a foregone conclusion. The real focus for investors will be in the forecast for further rate hikes this year, and the updated economic forecast with inflation and GDP key items of…

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February CPI Looms for Market

February CPI Looms for Market The back-up in yields this week has several reasons driving it but concern about inflation is certainly one of the primary factors.   Part of the uncertainty about inflation will be answered by tomorrow’s February CPI report. The news is not expected to be good as the overall monthly CPI…

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Do We All Know Where Ukraine is Now?

Ukraine War Will Continue to Dominate Trading This Week Even if the economic calendar were chock full of first-tier releases, it would be developments in the Ukraine war that would dominate trading. The fact we have a fairly light week of data makes the war influence that much greater.   Developments over the weekend haven’t…

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Wage Gains Move Front and Center for Fed

Wage Gains Move Front and Center for the Fed As you read this, the January employment numbers will have been released and will probably signal a third straight month of sub-250 thousand job gains.  Will that slow the Fed in its newly redirected path to stamp out inflation? No. First, the weakness can easily be…

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Casting About for a Fed Rate Path

Casting About for a Fed Rate Path We knew this week would be partially about trying to reach consensus on what the Fed’s rate path this year might look like. On Monday, we were delivered forecasts from the major Wall Street banks and all were pretty different. Some stuck to the three hike scenario but…

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Investors Try to Divine Pace and Magnitude of Coming Rate Hikes

Investors Try to Divine Pace and Magnitude of Rate Hikes Investors will be keen to see if the market volatility following the FOMC meeting last week starts to abate this week and provides a calmer trading environment. While the January jobs report on Friday is the highlight of the week from a data perspective, the…

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Can Inflation Be Tamed Without Damaging Growth?

Can Inflation Be Tamed  Without Damaging Growth? We want to kick-off today’s piece with a quick recap of what we heard from the Fed on Wednesday, and what we heard was decidedly hawkish. Shorter maturity Treasury yields will continue to rise as the Fed’s rate-hiking expectations get more ambitious. The question we have is whether…

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Hawkish Fed Talk Likely to Stay in Place

More Hawkish Fed Talk Expected Today The Fed concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon, with a statement at 2pm ET and a Powell-led press conference at 2:30pm ET. We discuss in more detail below what we expect to hear coming out of the meeting, but suffice it to say we expect the statement and Powell’s…

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FOMC On Tap This Week

Busy Week Headlined by the Fed For a Fed meeting that isn’t going to produce a rate hike, or any updates to rate and economic forecasts, it’s sure shaping up to be quite the pivotal meeting anyway. The market goes into Wednesday’s meeting with a consensus expectation that the Fed will signal quarterly 25bps rate…

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Is the Treasury Market Ready for the Fed?

Is the Treasury Market Ready for the Fed? We opened our article last Friday with the thought that, with a light data calendar, a Fed having gone into its pre-meeting quiet period, and a dearth of new information the market would range-trade until the meeting. Well, we got that wrong. The market was in no…

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Market Looking Ahead to FOMC Meeting Next Week

Market Looking Ahead to FOMC Meeting Next Week This week is thin on market-moving economic releases, and it’s also thin on Fed headlines as officials have gone into radio silence prior to next week’s FOMC meeting. That’s not to say the holiday-shortened week is completely devoid of data, as some housing numbers will make an…

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Range-Trading Appears to Lie Ahead

Range-Trading Appears to Lie Ahead Today, we receive a boatload of data headlined by retail sales for December. Other notable reports are industrial production, and the University of Michigan Sentiment survey for January. It’s not likely, however, that any of the new releases will move markets out of their recent ranges prior to the MLK…

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