What the Fed Will Be Watching in the Employment Report

The Fed Will Be Watching Some Lesser Known Job Stats The July employment report will be released at 8:30 am ET and the question isn’t so much what the results will be but how much will investors react to the findings? The median expectation is that 870 thousand jobs were created versus 850 thousand in…

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July Jobs Report and Infrastructure Bill Highlight the Week

July Jobs Report and Fate of Infrastructure Bill In addition to the Friday jobs report, the market will be keeping an eye on the infrastructure proposal being debated in the Senate. There is a decent chance something emerges this week and it will then head to the House for review and vote. The House is…

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Fed Offers a Little for Hawks and Doves Alike

Treasury Market Still Focused on Virus Case Counts The Treasury market is finishing up the week pretty much where it started despite getting a lot of new information from the FOMC meeting, GDP, and today’s June personal income and spending numbers.  The income and spending numbers were part of the second quarter GDP release but…

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Fed May Soften Tone From June

Increasing Virus Cases May Give Fed Pause The Fed concludes it’s two-day meeting this afternoon and investors will be looking for a couple things. For one, we think the Fed may well strike a different tone given they have been consistent in their messaging that the direction of public health (i.e., virus cases) will be…

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FOMC Meeting, GDP, and More Inflation Numbers this Week

FOMC Meeting, GDP, and More Inflation Numbers The FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be viewed more for any change in tone after the recent bout of risk-off activity that sent yields to levels last seen in February as growth prospects were marked down given the increasing delta variant case counts across the globe. While the…

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Housing Sales Rebound as Mortgage Rates Fall

The housing market has been one of the few sectors that has shown consistent strength from the very beginnings of the recovery after the induced lockdowns of April and May last year. There was, however, some plateauing in sales activity recently, as existing home sales had four straight months of declining sales on a month-over-month…

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Repricing for Lower Growth

The marking down of growth expectations given the increasing virus case counts from the delta variant across the globe has continued to pressure Treasury yields lower. Also contributing to the lower yields was the impression the Fed left on investors minds after its June meeting where they moved forward two rate hikes into 2023. The…

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Attention Turns to Biden’s Bills

Attention Turns to Biden’s Bills After focusing on Fed speak last week the market will turn its attention to the fate of the Biden Administration’s budget, tax, and infrastructure proposals. While the infrastructure plan has bipartisan support it’s very narrow and will require all 10 Republicans who signed onto it to vote for the final…

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Powell Stays on Message but is the Market Listening?

June retail sales numbers will be released later this morning, and expectations are that sales will rebound after the May pause which came after strong March and April numbers. The report, however, like most of the recent economic releases is likely to be given short attention by the market. They are more focused on Fed…

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CPI Numbers Are Flattening Curves

Who thought the hottest inflation numbers in a dozen years would lead to higher yields? Well, if you guessed that you would be only half right. The June CPI numbers were way above expectations, and that did lead to some selling on the short-end as investors brought forward Fed rate-hiking expectations. The longer-end, however, remains…

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Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2021

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Second Quarter 2021 Beginning in May 2012 we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at the Correspondent Division of SouthState Bank.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $15.8 billion, or $122 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

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Powell Heads to the Hill

Powell on Capitol Hill and June CPI Headline the Week This week Chair Powell will address committees in both houses of Congress as part of his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.   While we don’t expect more tapering details we could get a clearer view of the Chairman’s thoughts on the inflation threat and the implications for rate…

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