Once Again, CPI Hotter Than Expected

Once Again, CPI Hotter Than Expected Once again CPI disappointed markets with a hotter-than-expected read and that has sent Treasury yields higher once again.   The overall inflation rate rose 1.3% for the month which was above the 1.0% increase in May and higher than the 1.1% expected. The 1.3% is a new cycle high….

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Investors Brace for Hot June CPI Report and So-So Retail Sales

Investors Brace for Hot June CPI Report and So-So Retail Sales Two factors will probably drive most of the price action this week and that’s Wednesday’s June CPI Report and Friday’s Retail Sales.   Also, in the background keeping pressure on prices will be reopening auctions of 10yr notes tomorrow and 30yr bonds on Wednesday….

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Strong Job Growth Continues in June While Wage Gains Remain Stable

Strong Job Growth Continues in June While Wage Gains Remain Stable Nonfarm payrolls increased 372 thousand with those gains continuing to be fairly widespread. Expectations were for 265 thousand jobs and the increase was just below May’s 384 thousand jobs. The largest gains came in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and healthcare. Total…

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A Tumultuous Week Comes to a Close

A Tumultuous Week Comes to a Close We mentioned on Monday to tighten your seat belt as it could be a wild ride this week and that prediction certainly came true. The peculiar thing, however, is that with all the volatility this week has brought, the 10yr Treasury is practically back where it started the…

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Fed Delivers a 75bps Rate Hike

Fed Delivers a 75bps Rate Hike The Fed relented to market pressure and raised the overnight fed funds target rate 75bps to 1.50% – 1.75%. The stronger-than-expected May CPI Report has kept financial markets under pressure since its release last Friday and the Fed acknowledged that pressure with the need to move in larger increments…

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Treasuries Finally Find a Bid

Treasuries Finally Find a Bid On Fed Day, Treasuries are finally finding a bid as news that the ECB convened an emergency meeting added a flight-to-safety bid into the Treasury market. The ECB is worried that some of its peripheral members are seeing yield spreads significantly widen as they prepare to hike rates and that…

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Treasury Yields Reach Highest in a Decade

Treasury Yields Reach Highest in a Decade The May CPI Report continues to reverberate around the world, and in its wake are Treasury yields not seen in over a decade.   Investors are betting the Fed will either not be able to contain inflation anytime soon, or that if they do it will necessitate a…

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May CPI Hits 40-Year High

May CPI Hits 40-Year High May CPI disappointed markets with a hotter-than-expected read and that has sent short to intermediate Treasury yields higher once again.   The overall inflation rate rose a full 1.0% for the month which was well above the 0.3% increase in April and higher than the 0.7% expected. Rebounding gas prices…

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Oil Prices Hit Cycle High, Treasury Prices Head Lower

Oil Prices Hit Cycle High, Treasury Prices Head Lower With the Treasury set to auction $21 billion in 10yr notes this afternoon, the market finds itself on the defensive yet again with the 10yr yield back over 3%, currently at 3.02%, off 11/32nds in price. In fact, 3-handle yields begin at the 5yr mark at…

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Investors Brace for More Treasury Supply and CPI

Investors Brace for More Treasury Supply and May CPI Two factors will probably drive most of the price action this week and that’s long-end Treasury supply coming to auction and on Friday the May CPI report.   Testing the latest trading range will be a trio of Treasury auctions with $32 billion in 3yr notes…

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Strong Job Growth Continues While Wage Gains Moderate

Strong Job Growth Continues While Wage Gains Moderate Nonfarm payrolls increased 390 thousand in May with those gains fairly  widespread. Expectations were for 318 thousand jobs and the increase was just below April’s 436 thousand new jobs. The largest gains came in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing. Total…

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May Data Starts to Bloom

May Data Starts to Bloom The May ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10am ET and is expected at 54.5 vs. 55.4. The series has been softening of late, reaching a cycle high of 63.7 in March of 2021 but trending south since then. It’s still, however, above the 50 mark which divides an expanding…

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