Fed Setting the Stage for Big Core PCE Number

Fed Setting the Stage for Big Core PCE Number There has been a lot of Fed Speak this week and it mostly has been focused on the reoccurring theme that near-term inflation indications are transitory and not of long-lived concerns. We think part of the jawboning this week is pointing towards the Friday release of…

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We Get the Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator This Week

The Market Gets Another Inflation Number This Week After the FOMC minutes last week put a bit of a scare into markets with taper talk mentioned, cooler heads prevailed and Treasuries managed to recoup trading losses from that day and moved further lower in yield as the week concluded and investors became more assured that…

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Treasuries Bounce Back After Taper Talk Comment

Treasuries Bounce Back After Taper Talk Comment Treasuries have recouped all the selling that came about off the April FOMC minutes from Wednesday afternoon when the mention that tapering might be discussed at an upcoming meeting. That timeframe upset market sensibilities that thought it more a late summer discussion point. Once the realization hit that…

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Home on the Range

Treasuries Happy in the Range A slow week of economic data is allowing Treasuries to drift around within the 1.60% – 1.70% range for the 10yr and that is likely to continue for a time. Next week brings personal income and spending numbers for April and the expectation is that they will look a lot…

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Fed Speakers Get Another Chance to Talk Inflation

Fed Speakers Get Another Chance to Talk Transitory Inflation After a week of consequential economic data, this week is a bit thin in that respect but we do get some Fed input that will be closely followed by investors.  The minutes from the April 28 FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and while the…

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Treasuries Still Standing After CPI and Fresh Supply

Treasuries Still Standing After CPI and New Supply The Treasury market rather easily absorbed hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, not to mention new 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr supply. So that begs the question, if a red-hot CPI and fresh supply can’t move yields over recent highs what will it take? Maybe today’s retail sales report,…

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April CPI to Add to Inflation Story

April CPI to Add to Inflation Story Later this morning we get April CPI and the equity market hasn’t waited around to sell on the rumors. Expectations are that overall CPI will reach a ten-year high of 3.6% while core CPI is expected to spike to 2.3% versus 1.6% in March. This is the base…

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April CPI, Retail Sales, and Fed Speak

April CPI and Retail Sales With a Heavy Dose of Fed Speak We wrote in this space last Monday that after the week is over we should have a good idea if April was able to outshine March as far as economic activity and while expectations were such, the reality failed to live up to…

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April Jobs Report Misses Badly

April Employment Report Misses Badly The April Employment Report badly missed expectations of 1.0 million new jobs with just 266,000 jobs created, while the March report was revised lower from 916,000 jobs to 770,000. With the latest numbers, around 8.2 million people remain unemployed from the pandemic. The problem now, with the disappointing April numbers,…

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On Cinco De Mayo, We Look Back at April

The Tells of April About to Appear This week is filled with three reports that will quickly define the economic activity in April: the ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and BLS Employment Report. The ISM Manufacturing ostensibly disappointed but it was due solely to supply constraints. Large backlogs and scant inventory point to robust orders but…

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As May Arrives, April Looks to Have Outshone March

April Outshines March, And We’re Not Just Talking About the Weather By the end of the week we’ll have a good idea just how strong the economy was in April. If the bevy of first-tier reports come in as expected April will outshine March as far as economic activity, not to mention its better springtime…

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Treasuries Finally Take Note of Strengthening Economy

Treasuries Finally Acknowledge Strengthening Economy Was it the solid first quarter GDP report and the hints of more to come? Was it the resolutely dovish Fed? Was it the string of solid earnings reports? Was it the expectation of another bang-up jobs report next week? Well, perhaps it was all the above that finally caught…

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