September Retail Sales Today but Market Remains Fixated on Inflation

September Retail Sales Today but Market Fixated on Inflation Implications After September’s CPI numbers last Wednesday the last major economic release this week is this morning’s Retail Sales Report. Recall that the August report surprised to the upside when expectations were that rising virus cases would dent sales. That wasn’t the case but with downward…

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Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2021

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: Third Quarter 2021 Beginning in May 2012 we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at the Correspondent Division of SouthState Bank.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $17.2 billion, or $132 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

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Inflation, Retail Sales and Fed Speak on Tap for This Week

September CPI, Retail Sales and Plenty of Fed Speak A couple first-tier economic releases will likely garner attention from traders this week with a good dose of Fed news to keep the headlines flowing.  First, the September CPI numbers will be released tomorrow and it’s expected to be mostly a placeholder month with little movement…

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Market and Fed Await the September Employment Report

September Jobs Report Last Before November FOMC Meeting The September employment report will be released at 8:30 am ET this morning and it will be the last jobs report before the November FOMC meeting and the expected quantitative easing tapering announcement. That being said, we don’t think the tapering decision hangs in the balance on…

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September Jobs Report Last Before November FOMC Meeting

September Jobs Report Last Before November FOMC Meeting It’s perhaps a quirk of the calendar that this Friday’s September Employment Report will be the only one before the Fed’s next FOMC meeting on November 3. So the question becomes how consequential can it be? We think the risks are asymmetric in that it would take…

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Congressional Drama Continues

Democrats Continue to Wrestle with Reconciliation, Infrastructure Bills and Each Other Congress passed a funding bill last week that provides money through December 3 and avoids a temporary shutdown, but that was the easy part. The bigger lift is Biden’s reconciliation and infrastructure bills, along with the debt ceiling drama. Honesty compels us to say…

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Why are Yields Suddenly Moving Higher?

Why are Yields Suddenly Moving Higher Following the FOMC meeting last week there was a brief pause in yields but on Thursday they bolted higher and haven’t really looked back since. Why is that? Well, in the sections below we discuss our rationale for why but suffice it to say that the combination of a…

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Budget, Infrastructure, and Debt Ceiling Drama

Budget, Infrastructure, and Debt Ceiling Drama While yields seek a higher equilibrium level the market will also be keeping an eye out on the discussions in Congress over the fate of President Biden’s budget and infrastructure bills, along with any movement in the debt ceiling drama. House Democratic progressives are demanding that the larger $3.5…

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Market Reacts to Powell’s Tapering Clarity

Market Reacts to Powell’s Tapering Clarity The FOMC, rather Fed Chair Jay Powell, delivered a little more certainty in Wednesday’s meeting and press conference in regards to tapering and that certainty helped provide a little more clarity on the rate hikes that might follow. Powell stated that a formal tapering announcement is all but assured…

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FOMC Meets As Global Growth Questions Swirl

FOMC Meets as Global Growth Questions Swirl The FOMC meeting concludes this afternoon and we provide some early expectations of what we think we’ll see from the meeting in the sections below. With an updated economic and rate forecast quarter-end meetings always have their fair share of intrigue, even when policy is expected to remain…

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Investors Focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting

Investors Focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Quarter-end FOMC meetings always carry a bit more drama than other meetings, even when a change in rates or policy are not expected, and this meeting should be no different. With refreshed economic forecasts and the infamous dot plots the meeting will provide plenty of information for investors to…

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Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week

Upbeat Retail Sales Revives Thoughts of Taper Talk Next Week Just when we thought it safe to conclude taper talks will not be a part of the September FOMC meeting along comes the August Retail Sales Report to bring it back front and center. The sales numbers were better-than-expected and that pressured Treasury prices lower…

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