Correspondent Blog

In an article last week (Here), we discussed how the higher-for-longer interest rate environment will affect the community bank sector. Stable short-term rates for the next year or longer will increase cost of funds (COF), hold yields on loans steady, decrease net interest margin (NIM), and pressure return on equity (ROE) for new credit assets. …

The banking industry’s average efficiency ratio worsened for the first time since 2021. The industry’s efficiency ratio increased to 54.30% in Q2/23 from 52.98% in Q1/23. This development is very important to community banks, as their efficiency ratio also increased, but to 61.63%. The national banks have already indicated how they plan to reverse the…

Bankers need to consider the term structure of rates, also known as the yield curve shape, when structuring and pricing commercial loans to maximize return and reduce risk.  Many bankers and borrowers are convinced that a recession is imminent, but the current term structure of rates does not necessarily establish this conclusion.  The yield curve’s…

Since our last update on 2Q credit HERE, 3Q commercial loan pricing trends start with a better economic picture as higher than-planned growth and softer inflationary data have changed part of the market’s outlook. The fear of recession has decreased in 3Q, and the new primary concern shifts back to interest rate risk and deposit…

The yield curve is currently inverted, and the FOMC may take a pause at its next meeting in June.  Uncertainty about the evolution of the economy and the path of future interest rates and the unusual inverted yield curve shape affords a prime opportunity for bankers to provide sound, trusted advice to clients.  This is…

In recent articles (here and here), we discussed why banks that take the interest rate movement risk demonstrate lower performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Empirical evidence, historical bank failures, and common sense teach us that many risks do not translate to higher yields. The second article compared and contrasted community banks’ pay-for-risk…

In an article last week (HERE), we discussed why real estate loans underwritten at common debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and loan-to-value (LTV) levels may quickly become substandard credits if capitalization (cap) rates normalize, as expected because interest rates are rising.  Credits will deteriorate much faster if an economic downturn stresses net operating income (NOI)….

Community bankers need to understand their competitive landscape.  Who the competition is, what the lending competition is offering, their delivery channels, and service levels can help community banks differentiate their services and enhance their competitive advantage.  Understanding the competitive banking landscape helps community banks set proper pricing, respond to rival marketing, and compete more effectively. …

After last week’s FOMC rate increase of 25 basis points, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time in the previous 30 years. The current yield curve presents various challenges for community bankers for revenue generation and risk management. In this article, we will outline the significance of the yield curve shape and…

Prepayment penalties on loans always drive value. However, in 2023, loan prepayment provisions will be essential tools for commercial banks.  Loan prepayment provisions lower prepayment speeds (especially in a stable or declining interest rate environment) and drive higher return on assets (ROA) for banks. In this article, while we have discussed how to sell prepayment…

At a cursory observation, one would conclude that the effects of inflation on a real estate project are neutral.  If owners can pass increased costs to tenants, they can keep inflation from decreasing NOI or cash-on-cash return.  However, closer analysis and lessons from history demonstrate that to counteract inflation’s free cash flow-destroying effects, revenue must…

It is counterintuitive that you might want to advise borrowers to do a loan refinancing at this stage of the interest rate cycle.  The FOMC has raised short-term interest rates by 3.75% in the eight months between March and November.  The market is now forecasting an additional 1.25% in hikes by early next year.  Borrowers…