Predicting Bank Performance with Declining Rates

Most community bankers we talk believe they will get a boost to bank performance with declining short-term rates.  The thinking is that a lower Fed Funds rate will mitigate credit risk, spur loan demand and potentially soften competition for deposits, leading to wider NIM and more profitability.  Unfortunately, the empirical evidence shows otherwise.  While the…

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Non-Maturity Deposits – A New Machined Learned Framework For ALM

Banking has now arrived at a speed that it cannot handle. While there have always been problems in banks’ asset-liability models (ALM) and liquidity stress test models, the current environment exacerbates this problem. Recent bank failures hurting public perceptions, the current market trends of higher rates, Quantitative Tightening, digital banking, social media, and a flight…

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How to Choose a Hedge Provider as a Bank

Last week we wrote about loan-level vs. balance sheet hedging for community banks and provided our loan proposal generator (HERE). We compared and contrasted the two strategies and sized the market for community banks. We also shared a table that summarized the two strategies. In this article, we will discuss what community banks should look…

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Using Swaps, Caps, Floors, and Collars in Lending – Part I

The Federal Reserve is rapidly changing the interest rate environment to fight inflation.  The Fed’s actions are forcing lenders and borrowers to consider ways to protect cash flow, credit, liquidity, and interest rate risks.  Many borrowers ask lenders how they can use swaps, caps, floors, and collars to protect their businesses and lower borrowing costs. …

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