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The Fed started its tightening cycle this week, after the latest CPI report showed inflation is running at stronger than expected 3.4% annualized rate. The President called for the Fed to cut rates, resting on a simple syllogism: the United States is a stronger credit than it was, and stronger credits pay lower rates, so…

Through most of 2025, the Fed Funds futures market has been predicting multiple imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Many banks have bet their budgets on a lower cost of funds and better credit performance. While this market was consistently forecasting rate cuts just a few months in the future, those cuts did…