1st Quarter GDP Contracts More Than Expected
Not that the market is focused much on the current slate of economic results, we did get first quarter GDP this morning giving us a look at the beginnings of the economic calamity as the pandemic started to be felt in March. Recall that January and February economic results were generally positive, if not looking…
Our 20 Point Bank Checklist For Returning to Work
While we discussed our framework for deciding WHEN to call bank employees back to the branch lobbies and workplace, in this article, we cover HOW. The two decisions are interrelated since the sooner you look to reopen, the more risk you take, and the more resources you have to invest in a reopening plan. Since…
What is Going to Happen to The IOER Rate?
The rate that the Federal Reserve pays on bank deposits, called the Interest on Excess Reserve Rate (IOER), is currently at ten basis points and will be the subject of an interesting discussion at the upcoming Fed Open Market Committee Meeting this week. At the end of last week, the Fed Funds effective rate was…
FOMC Meeting and the Initial Look at 1st Quarter GDP
This week’s FOMC meeting won’t involve any change in monetary policy, what with rates already at 0%-0.25% and unlimited QE, but it may involve some formalizing of desired tweaks to a few of the programs stood up over the past couple weeks. Expansion of the Municipal Liquidity Facility beyond the states and approximately 24 cities…
The Range is Strong in This One
The focus of trading this week has once again been on the trend in case counts and drug trial results for COVID-19. While the net of that has been a range-bound market, both in equities and fixed income, the data that did arrive continues to paint a grim picture. Jobless claims were down from last…
Fourth Stimulus Bill is a Go, Number Five is on Deck
The fourth stimulus bill was agreed to by the Senate yesterday and the House is expected to vote on the bill Thursday followed by a quick signing by the President. The bill provides another $320 billion for the wildly popular Paycheck Protection Program, $75 billion for emergency hospital funding that will provide monies for additional…
4 Models To Help You Decide When To Call Your Employees Back To The Workplace
If we are going to “reopen America,” it helps to have a quantitative approach to make sure we are making the right decision. Since we are dealing with people’s lives and livelihood, this will be the most critical decision that most of us will ever have to make in their entire professional careers. Everyone wants…
The Economy After Coronavirus
Community bankers are busy serving their customers and protecting their balance sheets as we respond to the Coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic havoc. Just as prudent bankers were strategically planning for the next recession before any signs of this downturn, forward-thinking community bankers will very soon be contemplating their strategy for doing business after…
Oil Price Collapse Sets Risk-Off Tone
Oil prices collapsed over the weekend from $18.27 a barrel to $12.07, the largest percentage slide ever, and the lowest price since 1998. The catalyst is continued slack demand and full storage facilities. Literally, there’s no place to put it. That has markets in a risk-off tone as the week begins. The market’s reaction to…
Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2020
Beginning in May 2012 we started tracking portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at the Correspondent Division of CenterState Bank. At present, we account for over 131 client portfolios with a combined book value of $10.09 billion, or $77 million on average per portfolio. Twelve months earlier the average portfolio size was $65…
Reopening Plan and Promising Drug Treatment Create Risk-On Tone
Yesterday, the SBA PPP loan program reached its initial limit with $349 billion in loans approved. Meanwhile, the political wrangling over the next tranche of funding goes on. Both parties want to add $250 billion to the program but they have been sparring over whether to add loan restrictions as well as funding for other…
A Couple Ways to Play the Coming Prepayment Rollercoaster
We mentioned last week that with the forbearance program for mortgage debtors in the recently passed CARES Act, mortgage prepayments this year could see a period of quiet then followed by faster speeds when the forbearance programs expire. That expected pattern leads to two ways to approach mortgage investments this year. As mentioned, the CARES…