Correspondent Blog

This week’s FOMC Meeting won’t lead to any monetary policy changes but the most important piece of information is likely to come from the post-meeting press conference where Fed Chair Powell is likely to be asked about what other measures might be employed from here. The answer will probably be the continued use of quantitative…

The May Employment Report is out  and if you like surprises this report is loaded with them. Instead of an expected loss of 7.75 million jobs, the report found  2.5 million jobs created versus 20.7 million jobs lost in April.  The surprises don’t stop there. The unemployment rate was expected to rise to 19.5% from…

Trading direction remains more focused on things other than economic numbers from May but we did get the ADP Employment Change Report this morning and it was better-than-expected. During the month 2.8 million people lost their jobs which was not as bad as the 9.0 million expectation and an improvement from the 19.6 million jobs…

PPP forgiveness is fraught with peril for bankers. Done the wrong way, and it will suck countless resources. Aside from having a good process and/or technology platform, having a marketing plan will be the difference between success and failure. If done correctly, an application can take 20 minutes to review and approve. If done incorrectly,…

Loan growth is slowing for community banks, and credit spreads are widening. As is typical in economic cycles, recessions present an opportunity for healthy banks to thrive and for weaker banks to be whittled.  Despite the flat and low yield curve, the current banking environment is a perfect recipe for healthy banks to win new,…

There is a calm in the markets this morning that belies the mood of the nation after a weekend of civil unrest in dozens of US cities that reached all the way to the gates of the White House. Without exploring the larger issues behind the protests,  the events and damage will certainly slow the…

While the equity market has been looking ahead, and the hopes of better times, we did get April Personal Income and Spending figures and they offered an upside surprise, but some bad as well. Personal income for the month surprisingly rose by 10.5%, the most in the history of the series, and that’s versus –2.2%…

Fiscal Stimulus For States Gets Another Look With the holiday weekend behind us, and summer beckoning in front, trading will take its cues from the relative success, or not, of the partial reopenings in various states and localities. While Kevin Costner built it in Field of Dreams and they came, if shops and restaurants reopen…

It is around this time that many banks are trying to determine the amount of staff and effort that will be required to process all their PPP Forgiveness Applications that are now ready to be filed. Late last Friday, the SBA issued new Final Rules that further outlines what is expected from borrowers and banks…

The future path of the economy is currently unpredictable. Still, the majority of banks have now eliminated two possible scenarios: 1) Best case scenario – that nothing will change from February 2020; and 2) Worst case scenario – that the pandemic will not end in the foreseeable future and banks should avoid loans and invest…

With the market staring at an early close today and the prospects of a three-day weekend, market movement is likely to be quiet as traders square positions and get ready to head for the door. While the Memorial Day weekend has typically signaled the beginning of summer and all manner of outdoor activities, this year…

During the last ten years of economic expansion, prudent bankers were planning for the next downturn. Everyone knew that the economic expansion would end, but no one could be sure when or how. Smart bankers managed their business by accepting that all expansions do eventually reverse. None of us can predict the future, but enterprising…