Here is the Cost and Risk of Lending Optionality

Optionality is defined as a state in which choice or discretion is allowed. In finance, optionality is an asset (has value) for the person who can exercise the option, while the person who gave the option has the liability.  Selling options for above their value can be a profitable business for banks and brokers, but…

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What Banks Can Learn from the Republic Bank Failure

On April 26, 2024, Republic First Bank (DBA Republic Bank) was seized by state regulators and the long running bank drama came to an end.  With the assistance of the FDIC, Fulton Financial acquired certain assets, debt and deposits of Republic Bank. This first bank failure in 2024 is reported to cost the Deposit Insurance…

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How The Market Gets Interest Rate Predictions Wrong

In a few short months, stronger economic data (higher GDP, stronger job market, and stubborn inflation) changed the market’s and the Fed’s view on the future path of interest rates. The market and the Fed are now aligning on only one rate cut in 2024 – obviously this will change over the course of the…

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The Problem with Floating and Adjustable Rate Loans

A typical current strategy for community banks when originating commercial real estate loans is to offer floating-rate loans or shorter-term adjustable structures.  Borrowers are waiting for the Fed to lower short-term interest rates, hopefully translating into a refinancing opportunity for the borrower at a lower loan rate.  Unfortunately, this strategy has all the underpinnings of…

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How Large Banks Are Using Interest Rate Swaps

With an inverted yield curve, borrowers have a pricing advantage to lock in long-term fixed-rate loans, while lenders strongly desire to limit loan duration.  One possible solution to this dichotomy is for banks to offer interest rate swaps to hedge individual loans.  This article will review domestic banks’ adoption of interest rate swaps.  Next week’s…

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Loan Structuring with an Inverted Yield Curve

The yield curve is currently inverted, and the FOMC may take a pause at its next meeting in June.  Uncertainty about the evolution of the economy and the path of future interest rates and the unusual inverted yield curve shape affords a prime opportunity for bankers to provide sound, trusted advice to clients.  This is…

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FTP – Another Bank Failure and Another Learning Opportunity

Last week, we published an article [here] discussing how fair value accounting for assets and liabilities may have prevented the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, even if sound risk mitigation practices were not resolutely embraced by management.  We argued that valuing assets at historical value or measuring net interest margin (NIM) is not only a…

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Fair Value Accounting and Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Analysts, regulators, legislators, and bankers have been attributing the root cause of SVB’s failure in the past month.  Some blame the dilution of the Dodd-Frank provisions, others the lack of oversight by regulators, and others still blame social media for exacerbating the deposit run.  The root cause of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) failure is poor…

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Non-Maturity Deposits – A New Machined Learned Framework For ALM

Banking has now arrived at a speed that it cannot handle. While there have always been problems in banks’ asset-liability models (ALM) and liquidity stress test models, the current environment exacerbates this problem. Recent bank failures hurting public perceptions, the current market trends of higher rates, Quantitative Tightening, digital banking, social media, and a flight…

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The Risk of Interest Rate Movement in Relationship Banking

In recent articles (here and here), we discussed why banks that take the interest rate movement risk demonstrate lower performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Empirical evidence, historical bank failures, and common sense teach us that many risks do not translate to higher yields. The second article compared and contrasted community banks’ pay-for-risk…

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Community Bank Hedging Options

Over the last 15 years, an ever greater percentage of community banks have embraced some form of interest rate hedging.  Approximately 1,000 banks in the country use some form of hedging products to manage risk, generate fee income, or provide product offerings demanded by their customers.  Most of the top 100 banks (by asset size)…

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What Will Be The Fed’s Terminal Fed Funds Rate?

Last week the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – that was no surprise to the market.  However, in Powell’s unscripted remarks at the press conference, he stated that interest rates have reached a “neutral level.”  The market reacted to those words with equities and bonds both rallying.  We…

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