Correspondent Blog
Tag: Bank Credit RIsk
Bank Credit Outlook for Q2 and Updated PODs
The first quarter of 2026 has brought tariffs, a war, greater inflation/higher energy prices, AI-driven changes, more volatility and more uncertainty. Unfortunately, almost every aspect of this current environment is inversely correlated to bank performance. The bank credit outlook is highly volatile with a skew to the downside due to higher inflation to include higher…
Managing the Risk Surface of a Loan Given Tariffs
When a bank makes a loan, it’s stepping onto a multidimensional terrain of risk. Credit, interest rate, liquidity, optionality, legal and operational risk all interplay with each other to expose the bank, and the borrower, to a set of risk that can be visualized as a three-dimensional area. Given the current state of the economy,…
Bank Credit Risk: A Risk-Return Analysis
Most bankers are familiar with the concept of risk-return tradeoff, which states that potential return rises with an increase in risk. Low-risk assets pay lower potential returns, whereas high-risk assets pay higher potential returns. Further, some bankers are taught early in their careers that they are in the business of taking risks, and banks would…