Building The Relationship Banking Model

In a recent article (here), we discussed why banks that take risks to earn higher revenue demonstrate lower performance as measured by ROA.   Empirical evidence, historical bank failures, and common sense teach us that many risks do not translate to higher yields.  While in that blog, we specifically considered the risk-return tradeoff for credit risk;…

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Bank Credit Risk: A Risk-Return Analysis

Most bankers are familiar with the concept of risk-return tradeoff, which states that potential return rises with an increase in risk.  Low-risk assets pay lower potential returns, whereas high-risk assets pay higher potential returns.  Further, some bankers are taught early in their careers that they are in the business of taking risks, and banks would…

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The Current Banking Crisis – 10 Not-So-Apparent Lessons

It turns out that confidence is more valuable than capital. While we wrote about the root cause of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) HERE, the lessons of the current banking crisis go beyond interest rate risk management. While interest rate risk caused the most significant impact on value, several other factors contributed to…

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The Problem With DSCR and LTV in Lending

Many community banks today are willing to underwrite real estate secured loans on just two metrics: debt-service-coverage ratio (DSCR) and loan-to-appraised value (LTV). Banks typically approve credits above 1.20x DSCR and below 75% LTV – with many loan-specific factors that may skew these acceptable levels. For competitive reasons, we see banks dipping to 1.10X DSCR,…

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The Secrets of Expert Deposit Pricing Management

You can always tell a good banker by the way they handle their deposits. With loans, it’s hard to discern expert-level skills unless you know the market and the credit. Deposits, however, are pure. When we analyze a bank, it is typically the first thing we look for, as deposit pricing and structure are the…

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Quantifying Your Market When Raising Deposits

Last week we highlighted the lessons that machine learning taught us about the Unified Deposit Formula (HERE). Embodied in the Unified Deposit Formula is a marketing and amplification equation. In this article, we expand on the lessons we learned from artificial intelligence regarding raising deposits and explore how we can better use the Formula, and…

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The First Step For Raising Deposits

If you are looking for insight into how artificial intelligence can help in banking, we give you the Unified Deposit Formula that can be used for raising deposits. Before using machine learning, we, like most bankers, thought about deposit pricing along a single dimension – price and sensitivity. However, it turns out that price and…

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Deposit Pricing Basics Part 1: The Concepts

The art and science of optimized deposit gathering is a declining skill set among bankers. Banking schools don’t teach it, conferences don’t showcase it, and internal bank educators no longer train in the discipline. It is ironic as no other banking endeavor can build long-term franchise value like deposit gathering. Further, deposit gathering and its…

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The Big Mistake When Pricing Deposits

Many banks work hard to have a low-cost deposit base only to undermine their efforts. One of the biggest mistakes bank make when pricing deposits is advertising an above-market rate, thereby shortening deposit duration and increasing negative convexity for that one account and the whole product offering. This subtle distinction might be lost on many…

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What Drives ROA?

In a previous article (HERE), we analyzed industry performance and demonstrated that the average five-year net interest margin (NIM) and return on assets (ROA) are unrelated.  The correlation coefficient (R2) between these two variables is NEGATIVE 0.02 (essentially no explanatory relationship).  This lack of connection has been a general observation in the banking industry for…

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NIM and Its Relationship to ROA in Banking

Despite reaching the highest profitability in over a decade in 2022, US banks overall trade at a discount to other sectors as measured by P/E or P/Book, and approximately 53% of US banks have earned less than their cost of equity over the last five years. The high profitability for banks in 2022 was propelled…

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Here Is How To Calculate Your Bank’s Cost Of Capital [Calculator]

As interest rates go back up and volatility continues to remain high, banks’ cost of capital has undergone a significant shift up. Your cost of capital is essential to know for several reasons. Mostly, it gives your board and shareholders a yardstick in which to gauge a bank’s return. Produce over your cost, and you…

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