How The Market Gets Interest Rate Predictions Wrong

In a few short months, stronger economic data (higher GDP, stronger job market, and stubborn inflation) changed the market’s and the Fed’s view on the future path of interest rates. The market and the Fed are now aligning on only one rate cut in 2024 – obviously this will change over the course of the…

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How To Talk To Commercial Borrowers About The Future Path of Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised short-term interest rates by 3.00% in the six months between March and September.  The market is now forecasting an additional 1.25% in hikes by year’s end, with the next move coming on November 3rd.  Many borrowers and market participants have been surprised by the speed of…

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