Correspondent Blog

Senate Returns to Work on Stimulus 3.0 After a one week hiatus, or vacations to Cancun, the Senate will take full aim at the Biden Administration’s proposed $1.9 trillion Stimulus 3.0 package.  With memories of the trimmed down Obama 2009 stimulus package still fresh in many Democrats’ minds, expect them to go it alone and…

With little in the way of material economic releases to disturb the market,  price action in Treasuries will be the story in itself.  All eyes have been on the 10-Year note as it jumped out of the gate on Tuesday following the long weekend and posted a weekly high of 1.33%, and nearly the highest…

Why do some banks grind it out and struggle to produce a 9% return on equity (“ROE”), while other banks such as Bank of America and Chase produce 20% plus ROE for the same business segment? One answer is that banks that produce an above-average ROE either have a more profitable customer segment focus, more…

January is typically a slow month for loan production at community banks, and the pandemic-hampered economy made the month even more challenging for many banks. The data from the Federal Reserve’s H.8 report showed that all loans were essentially flat in January for banks. For January, for small domestically chartered commercial banks (defined as not…

Treasury yields have moved to near yearly highs with the usual suspects being inflation fears, improving virus/vaccine outlook, and the coming of Stimulus 3.0. One of the tenets in the improving virus/vaccine outlook is that it will drive a rebound in consumer spending and with two-thirds of the economy based on consumer consumption an improving…

  Yields on the Move Again 10-year Treasury yields moved over 1.25% in the early morning hours without any particular reason. After taking down supply last week in a fairly easy manner, some consolidating around the upper teen range was seen as likely but the move this morning has to be respected. Technically speaking, 1.27%…

Visions of inflation have been dancing around investors heads for months now given the amount of present and future monetary and fiscal policy stimulus, not to mention the improving news on the virus and vaccine front. January CPI numbers, however, continue to reflect benign price pressures. The overall rate increased  0.3% for the month versus…

Our first indication of industry performance for 4Q comes to us in the form of earnings disclosures from the top 24 banks. In this article, we break down five lessons learned from analyzing large bank performance for the fourth quarter (4Q) of 2020 compared to 2019 and see how we can turn this data into…

Stimulus 3.0 Gets Closer & Treasury Auctions Just like when Navin R. Johnson got his name in the phone book in the movie The Jerk, things should start happening now with regards to the Biden Administration’s proposed $1.9 trillion Stimulus 3.0 package. After some attempts at bipartisanship, the administration seems prepared to go it alone…

A frustrated bank leader sat alone in her office amidst stacks of analysis showing the slow erosion of the net interest margin – once the bank’s engine of profitability. The leader had watched the margin ebb like the wick of a burning candle, despite the monthly efforts from skilled advisors and analytical staff. New target…

  Economic News The January Employment Report missed expectations of 105,000 new jobs with only 49,000 jobs created. In addition, the prior two months were adjusted lower with 159,000 less jobs than initially reported. December alone saw jobs drop from an initially reported –140,000 to –227,000. January is a notoriously difficult month to forecast with…

The price action driving markets lately has been the outlooks on the latest stimulus proposal in DC, news on the vaccination roll-out, and an eye on the virus variants and whether they are getting a foothold in the U.S.. That being said it is jobs week and this morning we have the ADP Employment Change…