Correspondent Blog

The now-famous Ally Bank commercial of 2012 that asked two kids if they want a pony goes down as one of the most effective in banking history. Two girls are asked if they want a pony, and while the girl in blue gets a toy pony, the girl in orange gets a real pony. Disappointment…

The Fed probably didn’t intend to set in motion a risk-off trade after it’s Wednesday meeting but that’s what  happened after investors had an evening to digest the Fed’s concerns that flowed through their forecasts, the first since December, and in some post-meeting comments. Rising case counts in several states raised concerns too that a…

In a surprise to no one the Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged today, but did return to forecasting the economy and rates for the first time since the December meeting and the bottom line there is the Fed doesn’t expect to hike rates through 2022. Chair Powell is expected to address at the…

Investors will mark time until 2:00pm ET when the FOMC releases its post-meeting statement. While the statement will probably be a fairly mundane affair without too much to surprise the market, more attention will be paid to the post-meeting press conference with Fed Chair Powell. While there isn’t any monetary policy dial-twisting expected today, the…

True to form, last Friday, President Trump signed into law a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) change giving us yet a new acronym and the need to scramble to figure out how to amend our respective Forgiveness program to accommodate. The good news is that the new law, the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act (“PPPFA”), addresses…

Last Friday’s economic data indicated that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 2.5 million in May, compared with expectations for a decline of 7.5 million. In April, nonfarm payroll fell by 20.7 million in the largest single-month drop in records dating back to 1939. Throughout last week, interest rates rose (the ten-year yield rising by 25bps)…

This week’s FOMC Meeting won’t lead to any monetary policy changes but the most important piece of information is likely to come from the post-meeting press conference where Fed Chair Powell is likely to be asked about what other measures might be employed from here. The answer will probably be the continued use of quantitative…

The May Employment Report is out  and if you like surprises this report is loaded with them. Instead of an expected loss of 7.75 million jobs, the report found  2.5 million jobs created versus 20.7 million jobs lost in April.  The surprises don’t stop there. The unemployment rate was expected to rise to 19.5% from…

Trading direction remains more focused on things other than economic numbers from May but we did get the ADP Employment Change Report this morning and it was better-than-expected. During the month 2.8 million people lost their jobs which was not as bad as the 9.0 million expectation and an improvement from the 19.6 million jobs…

PPP forgiveness is fraught with peril for bankers. Done the wrong way, and it will suck countless resources. Aside from having a good process and/or technology platform, having a marketing plan will be the difference between success and failure. If done correctly, an application can take 20 minutes to review and approve. If done incorrectly,…

Loan growth is slowing for community banks, and credit spreads are widening. As is typical in economic cycles, recessions present an opportunity for healthy banks to thrive and for weaker banks to be whittled.  Despite the flat and low yield curve, the current banking environment is a perfect recipe for healthy banks to win new,…

There is a calm in the markets this morning that belies the mood of the nation after a weekend of civil unrest in dozens of US cities that reached all the way to the gates of the White House. Without exploring the larger issues behind the protests,  the events and damage will certainly slow the…