Correspondent Blog

Last week’s FOMC Meeting resulted in an increase in short-term interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and projected seven rate hikes in 2022 and another four hikes in 2023.  The FOMC projects the Fed Funds rate to reach 1.875% by the end of the year and 2.75% next year (see DOT plot below).  However,…

Community banks have solid competitive advantages when competing against insurance companies (primarily life insurance companies or “Lifecos”) and commercial real estate securitization conduit lenders (CMBS) for commercial borrowers. Unfortunately, some bankers are not positioning their services correctly to explain why borrowers should do business with their community bank. Some bankers even use fatalistic arguments that…

US prudential regulators are clear that after 2021 banks may no longer use USD LIBOR as an index.  The remaining USD LIBOR cash and derivative instruments will continue until June 30, 2023, at which point all USD LIBOR settings are expected to be discontinued, and most legacy LIBOR contracts will be converted to a Fallback…

Most bankers have a hard enough time lending on real estate, let alone real estate that is not physically there in the “metaverse.” However, before you decide that you NEVER would lend on a virtual property,  consider that the world is changing. Thinking about how you would lend on virtual real estate is an interesting…

The most common question we hear from borrowers is, “Should I refinance my debt?”  This can be a difficult question for lenders to answer, but as a trusted advisor, every lender should understand the strategy, and the process to answer that question for every client.  We will address the knowledge that commercial lenders must have…

Once a loan is booked, it needs to be reviewed over time for changes in credit. The problem is that many banks have only one type of commercial loan review.  This standard review usually requires approximately eight hours of work from credit, loan administration, and management. When this effort is combined with data expense, the…

You can slice and dice your credit portfolio all you want, but if you are not paying attention to cross-correlations, your efforts could be sub-optimal. For example, many banks separate their multifamily exposure away from their single-family exposure. In some markets, these two subsectors are almost 80% correlated. A drop in housing prices usually occurs…

The average bank closes about 35% of their loans on their commercial loan pipeline report. Hearing this number begs the question – is that the optimal level for that metric? Put loans on that have a greater percentage of closing, and you potentially deprived transactions from getting the support they need. Put more loans on,…

Most customers are borrowing neophytes.  We estimate that the majority of community bank borrowers have a rudimentary financial and accounting understanding, and these borrowers may focus solely on the interest rate on a loan when comparing their options.  Even “sophisticated” and seasoned borrowers do not know how to compare their borrowing options to optimize outcomes. …

Recent regulatory messages have reinforced the importance for commercial banks to prepare for the end of LIBOR after 2021.  However, banks cannot wait until the end of 2021 to find replacement index(es)  because the transition from LIBOR requires changes to systems, vendors, training, and marketing that can take several quarters to finalize and implement.  To…

We have published multiple articles, economic bulletins, and podcasts on inflation (including here and here).  In this article, we will not make a case for or against the market’s expectation of inflation.  We will assume current gauges such as CPI and PCE accurately reflect the current inflation environment (many arguments can be made for why…

The average commercial loan term for amortizing credit facilities at community banks is between four and five years. Banks need to understand the optimal loan term for amortizing credits to maximize profit and minimize risk. We analyzed the average community bank’s preferred loan term based on risk (probability of default, loss given default, and expected…