Correspondent Blog

2022 will go down as one of the worst years for community bank loan mispricing when viewed on a spread basis. Rapidly rising rates crushed performance as many banks held a fixed rate constant and/or booked a fixed rate loan at a misguided level. Even though many loans were booked at below-par value (more information…

This week the FOMC increased the Fed Funds rate by 75 bps, as expected to the 3.75% to 4.00% target range. The Effective Fed Funds rate jumped up and should stabilize at 3.83%, as did the 1-month term SOFR, to 3.79%.  The futures market now expects close to average odds of a 75bps increase in…

In a previous article (HERE), we discussed the concept of Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP), why systemically important banks and large regional banks incorporate FTP, and why community banks should also consider implementing FTP.  We defined an FTP framework, the regulatory recommendation for FTP, and how FTP allows community banks to make better decisions about balance…

A common strategy for community banks, when faced with a borrower that wants a 10-year fixed rate loan, is to offer a five-year fixed rate that adjusts in five years. Historically, this has worked for some customers and banks because, over the last 40 years, five-year rates have generally fallen.  As interest rates fall, a…

Customers and competitors are challenging community banks to extend loan duration – borrowers are eager to lock fixed rates before they rise further, and many competitors are happy to oblige.  But what are the optimal fixed terms for community banks given today’s interest rate, credit, and liquidity environment?  While every bank’s mix of deposits and…

Historically, community banks have relied on net interest margin (NIM) instead of fee income to drive return on equity (ROE). In contrast, larger banks have emphasized non-interest income rather than NIM to boost ROE and revenue. For example, 40% of JP Morgan’s commercial banking revenue is derived from fee income, and JP Morgan’s commercial banking…

Last week’s FOMC Meeting resulted in an increase in short-term interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and projected seven rate hikes in 2022 and another four hikes in 2023.  The FOMC projects the Fed Funds rate to reach 1.875% by the end of the year and 2.75% next year (see DOT plot below).  However,…

Community banks refine their products and services to compete for better borrowing relationships – the better borrowing relationships are associated with better credit quality, meaningful cross-sell opportunities, acceptable margins and fee income, and higher return on equity (ROE).  Unfortunately, current market dynamics are making it hard for community banks to outcompete for these better borrowing…

In a recent blog [Here], we argued that banks are almost always in an inferior position by not re-quoting the loan rate with market movement until the loan closes. We think that when banks book a fixed-rate loan, the fixed-rate must be finalized at the closing table; otherwise, banks give borrowers a free option that…

If you want to know how you can improve your bank’s profitability, one place that you can start is better loan pricing. While chances are your bank prices most of its loans correctly, it is the fringe cases that, in aggregate, end up having a large impact on bank profitability. In this article, we look…

We see three expected developments in 2022 that will make a loan hedging program an essential competitive advantage for community banks. Increasing short-term rates, higher expected inflation, and increased need for fee income will significantly benefit those community banks that can offer a seamless and document-friendly loan hedging program.  While we have our ARC Program…

The average commercial loan term for amortizing credit facilities at community banks is between four and five years. Banks need to understand the optimal loan term for amortizing credits to maximize profit and minimize risk. We analyzed the average community bank’s preferred loan term based on risk (probability of default, loss given default, and expected…