Correspondent Blog

The Week Opens with Treasuries in Rally  Mode The week opens with Treasuries rallying on a combination of flight-to-safety and talk that yield highs for this cycle may be in place. Since touching 4% last Wednesday the 10yr yield has fallen to 3.68% this morning, up more than a point in price. The flight-to-safety component…

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised short-term interest rates by 3.00% in the six months between March and September.  The market is now forecasting an additional 1.25% in hikes by year’s end, with the next move coming on November 3rd.  Many borrowers and market participants have been surprised by the speed of…

A couple of weeks ago, we delved into the origination and operating costs of manufacturing commercial loans (HERE). In this article, we delve into deposit profitability and highlight the cost structure of deposits. The goal here is to give bankers that don’t utilize a funds transfer pricing and activity analysis methodology a glimpse into the…

The Bank of England Blinks   The UK continues to dominate the trading this week, and this morning the Bank of England said they would temporarily cease their quantitative tightening program and instead turn to temporary quantitative easing, or long bond buying, in order to “restore orderly market conditions.”   Volatility in both the currency…

Last week the Federal Reserve again raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – and again, that was in line with the market’s expectation. The question is when will the Fed stop, and what will be the terminal Fed Funds rate? We do not believe that the Fed’s “dot plot” fully reflects…

The Fed and Their Forecasts   Now that the FOMC meeting has come and gone, and the Treasury and equity markets have resumed their selling as a consequence, let’s take a look at those forecasts and see what they might tell us.   A year ago, the Fed was declaring rates would be lower for…

For decades community banks have taken on fixed rate loan risk mostly through the offering of five-year, fixed-rate, commercial term loans. This is probably the most popular structure for real estate-secured term credit at community banks. Now may be the right time for community banks to abandon this strategy – both for the borrowers who…

Last week, the American Banking Association (ABA) held its annual Bank Marketing Conference in Denver, receiving rave reviews. The theme was – developing your marketing superpowers. Amid the brewery networking, superhero costumes, and fun, some fantastic bank marketing lessons were had, and not just for bank marketers. The theme was how marketing needs to be…

Fed Week Arrives With another hawkish FOMC announcement due on Wednesday afternoon, Treasuries are not waiting around as the selling has already begun this morning. The 2yr Treasury is yielding 3.94%, a new cycle high, while the 10yr Treasury is trying to push above 3.50%. It peaked at 3.52% earlier this morning but currently sits…

Treasury Yields Continue to Creep Higher Another round of global risk asset selling has our markets ready to open lower and Treasuries are going along for the ride. S&P 500 equity futures are indicated lower by 51 points to 3868. The index bottomed at 3685 in June, so still a distance away but a retest…

Most financial institutions never see the actual cost of originating their products. To do so would require at least a rudimentary funds transfer pricing methodology, and many banks have not invested the time to derive a workable framework. Understanding a product’s cost structure is the first step towards accurate pricing and, more importantly, process improvement….

The banking industry’s cost of funds (COF) is highly correlated to short-term interest rates.  However, as of Q2/22, the average community bank’s COF has risen only a few basis points.  Community banks should be concerned about their COF because looking at current deposit conditions is like driving a car while looking at the rearview mirror….