Correspondent Blog

After last week’s FOMC rate increase of 25 basis points, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time in the previous 30 years. The current yield curve presents various challenges for community bankers for revenue generation and risk management. In this article, we will outline the significance of the yield curve shape and…

The art and science of optimized deposit gathering is a declining skill set among bankers. Banking schools don’t teach it, conferences don’t showcase it, and internal bank educators no longer train in the discipline. It is ironic as no other banking endeavor can build long-term franchise value like deposit gathering. Further, deposit gathering and its…

Rising funding costs and decreasing liquidity at community banks are causing managers to change pricing methodology for new credits. This makes some sense, as in other industries, if your input pricing goes up, you often adjust your end pricing.  We estimate that 25% to 50% of community banks have a policy requiring minimum yield or…

No doubt you have heard other bankers talking about ChatGPT. This AI-powered digital assistant, technically called “generative AI,” has taken banking, and society, by storm. In three months, it has become the primary tool of many bankers, helping make banks more efficient across the organization. Our innovation working group, called Spark, has been playing with…

In a previous article (here), we discussed why commercial loan prepayment protection would be a critical return on asset (ROA) driver for community banks in 2023. We outlined the four main reasons why prepayment provisions increase profitability for banks. We also discussed the four standard prepayment provisions for commercial loans (step-down, lock-out, defeasance, and symmetrical…

2022 will go down as one of the worst years for community bank loan mispricing when viewed on a spread basis. Rapidly rising rates crushed performance as many banks held a fixed rate constant and/or booked a fixed rate loan at a misguided level. Even though many loans were booked at below-par value (more information…

Prepayment penalties on loans always drive value. However, in 2023, loan prepayment provisions will be essential tools for commercial banks.  Loan prepayment provisions lower prepayment speeds (especially in a stable or declining interest rate environment) and drive higher return on assets (ROA) for banks. In this article, while we have discussed how to sell prepayment…

Many banks work hard to have a low-cost deposit base only to undermine their efforts. One of the biggest mistakes bank make when pricing deposits is advertising an above-market rate, thereby shortening deposit duration and increasing negative convexity for that one account and the whole product offering. This subtle distinction might be lost on many…

In a previous article (HERE), we analyzed industry performance and demonstrated that the average five-year net interest margin (NIM) and return on assets (ROA) are unrelated.  The correlation coefficient (R2) between these two variables is NEGATIVE 0.02 (essentially no explanatory relationship).  This lack of connection has been a general observation in the banking industry for…

A potential economic slowdown, slower rate rises, an inverted yield curve, and deposit stress likely make 2023 a trying year compared to 2022. Banks will need to balance these short-term challenges with longer-term strategic goals. For any banker looking for clarity, we present five New Year’s resolutions, no matter your size, that provide a roadmap…

Despite reaching the highest profitability in over a decade in 2022, US banks overall trade at a discount to other sectors as measured by P/E or P/Book, and approximately 53% of US banks have earned less than their cost of equity over the last five years. The high profitability for banks in 2022 was propelled…

The yield curve is currently inverted after the FOMC’s last rate increase of 75 bps.  The inversion will be more pronounced with next week’s additional rate increase, expected to be 50 bps.  The yield curve shape is an excellent opportunity for community bankers to provide sound risk mitigation and balance sheet management advice to borrowers. …