Correspondent Blog

Many economists and analysts predict that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will start easing monetary policy in 2024.  Many bankers and borrowers are convinced that a recession is imminent despite no clear evidence for such a conclusion.  How should lenders discuss interest rates in 2024, and what advice should relationship managers provide their…

Last week the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – that was no surprise to the market.  However, in Powell’s unscripted remarks at the press conference, he stated that interest rates have reached a “neutral level.”  The market reacted to those words with equities and bonds both rallying.  We…

The FOMC lowered the Federal Funds target range to 0.00%-to-0.25% in March of 2020, and it has remained there since.  But now, the market is convinced that the FOMC will raise rates in 2022 through 2024 to better align short-term interest rates with expected market conditions.  This pivot by the FOMC has bankers, and customers,…

There appears to be some complacency regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies in 2021 and 2022. The ten-year Treasury, around 1.35%, may be sending a short-term signal on liquidity versus a long-term prediction on inflation.  Community bankers need to factor in the high probability (50% to 75%) that tapering will start in 2021 and not…