Correspondent Blog

The Bank of England Blinks   The UK continues to dominate the trading this week, and this morning the Bank of England said they would temporarily cease their quantitative tightening program and instead turn to temporary quantitative easing, or long bond buying, in order to “restore orderly market conditions.”   Volatility in both the currency…

Last week the Federal Reserve again raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – and again, that was in line with the market’s expectation. The question is when will the Fed stop, and what will be the terminal Fed Funds rate? We do not believe that the Fed’s “dot plot” fully reflects…

The Fed and Their Forecasts   Now that the FOMC meeting has come and gone, and the Treasury and equity markets have resumed their selling as a consequence, let’s take a look at those forecasts and see what they might tell us.   A year ago, the Fed was declaring rates would be lower for…

For decades community banks have taken on fixed rate loan risk mostly through the offering of five-year, fixed-rate, commercial term loans. This is probably the most popular structure for real estate-secured term credit at community banks. Now may be the right time for community banks to abandon this strategy – both for the borrowers who…

Last week, the American Banking Association (ABA) held its annual Bank Marketing Conference in Denver, receiving rave reviews. The theme was – developing your marketing superpowers. Amid the brewery networking, superhero costumes, and fun, some fantastic bank marketing lessons were had, and not just for bank marketers. The theme was how marketing needs to be…

Fed Week Arrives With another hawkish FOMC announcement due on Wednesday afternoon, Treasuries are not waiting around as the selling has already begun this morning. The 2yr Treasury is yielding 3.94%, a new cycle high, while the 10yr Treasury is trying to push above 3.50%. It peaked at 3.52% earlier this morning but currently sits…

Treasury Yields Continue to Creep Higher Another round of global risk asset selling has our markets ready to open lower and Treasuries are going along for the ride. S&P 500 equity futures are indicated lower by 51 points to 3868. The index bottomed at 3685 in June, so still a distance away but a retest…

Most financial institutions never see the actual cost of originating their products. To do so would require at least a rudimentary funds transfer pricing methodology, and many banks have not invested the time to derive a workable framework. Understanding a product’s cost structure is the first step towards accurate pricing and, more importantly, process improvement….

The banking industry’s cost of funds (COF) is highly correlated to short-term interest rates.  However, as of Q2/22, the average community bank’s COF has risen only a few basis points.  Community banks should be concerned about their COF because looking at current deposit conditions is like driving a car while looking at the rearview mirror….

August CPI Headlines the Week   Treasuries are somewhat surprisingly finding an early bid this morning while awaiting the August inflation numbers tomorrow. That will be the key event of the week and provide the final piece of data for the Fed before hiking rates next week.   The debate around 50bps or 75bps continues,…

Inflation Trends Look Positive   Treasuries are well bid this morning after reacting negatively to Fed Chair Powell’s Cato conference comments yesterday that didn’t retreat from any of the hawkishness of Jackson Hole. Treated negatively yesterday, this morning the Treasury rally is being explained as “investors feeling rate hikes are getting close to being fully…

In the olden days, if you wanted to market deposits, the head of Retail would come to Marketing and say something like – “We need to raise deposits.” Marketing would then put together some ideas for a print or digital campaign; Retail would sign off on it, and then they would roll it out. Maybe…