Correspondent Blog

Looking for Clues Treasuries are starting the week tentatively in the green as they await more Fed speak and a look at April retail sales and housing activity. With the rise in rates and, of course, inflation the market will be looking for any sign of buckling by consumers.   As far as Fed speak,…

Hawkish Fed Speak Continues Treasuries are weaker this morning as some hawkish commentary late yesterday from Chair Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated the Fed’s commitment to squash inflation.   Powell’s comments were interpreted differently by various outlets but he repeated his comment from the FOMC press conference that should inflation continue…

April CPI Hotter Than Expected April CPI disappointed markets with a hotter-than-expected read and that has sent Treasury yields higher once again.   The overall rate rose 0.3% for the month which was well off the 1.2% increase in March but a touch higher than the 0.2% expected. The year-over-year rate ticked down to 8.3%…

The most significant problem with bank innovation is that bankers see or hear about a sexy piece of technology at a conference or at another bank and then acquire it. The new piece of technology ends up solving a known problem but, in the process, creates more problems, and risks, than it solves. It’s called…

The Beatings Will Continue It’s a new week but the market seems to be in the same frame of mind when we left off last week and that is selling early and often.   The 10yr yield reached a high of 3.20% in early trading today as April CPI looms on Wednesday as does another…

Your bank’s  deposit beta is going to rapidly change. In our previous article (HERE), we reviewed the banking industry’s cost of funding earning assets (COF), and we compared how community banks’ COF behaves relative to national banks in a rising interest rate cycle.  We showed that the average community bank’s COF is highly correlated to…

Job Growth Continues While Wage Gains Show Some Moderation Nonfarm payrolls increased 428 thousand with those gains fairly  widespread. Expectations were for 380 thousand jobs and it matched March’s 428 thousand new jobs. The largest gains came in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. However, total nonfarm payrolls remain 1.2 million below…

Market Awaits FOMC Decision and Powell’s Comments It’s not so much the 50bps rate hike we expect from the Fed this afternoon, but how Powell frames expectations for the meetings to come that will be the focus for investors. That will have to come mostly in the post-meeting press conference since we won’t see refreshed…

Most banks think in terms of linear growth. As a result, bankers love the idea of a sales funnel – put enough prospects at the top of the funnel, and a certain number of customers will fall out the bottom. Add more resources, and you get more customers. It is easy to understand. Unfortunately, there…

This Week Should Provide Some Key Answers for Investors By the time we get to the weekend, we should have a lot more information in hand in regards to both the economy, the labor market, and monetary policy. The FOMC meeting’s rate decision on Wednesday is the highlight of the week, and the question is…

Based on the futures market, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate to 3.00% at its December 2022 meeting. The Fed will also aggressively shrink its balance sheet to tame unwanted inflation. These two Fed moves, along with the economic environment and customer behavior will impact your forecasting of your cost…

Increasing Wage Gains Will Keep the 50bps Rate Hikes Coming   Treasuries are trading heavy this morning as the Employment Cost Index (ECI) came in above expectations and that is sparking concerns of the dreaded wage-price spiral. That is essentially when fatter wallets encourage more spending which in theory contributes to further price increases.  …