Correspondent Blog

Investors Look to Next Week We mentioned at the start of the week to expect some listless, uninspired, rangebound trading given the dearth of economic data, and no Fed speak, and that’s about what we got. The 10-year Treasury opened the week yielding 1.58% and we open Friday trading around 1.55%. So, just another week…

Radio Silence With the Fed in radio silence until next week’s FOMC meeting, and with a skinny and second-tier slate of economic releases this week, the market is left to drift a bit and stay close to established ranges for now. The Fed meeting next week, first quarter GDP, and durable goods numbers will wake…

We review and analyze two shareholder letters every year: Berkshire Hathaway’s and JP Morgan Chase’s (JPM).  We feel that as community bankers, we can learn much from Jamie Dimon (Chairman and CEO of JPM) and from Warren Buffet.  Recently JPM released its 66-page 2020 shareholder letter, and as usual, it was full of insight that…

Never Short a Dull Market After last week’s full slate of first-tier economic data, and a rostrum full of Fed speakers to enlighten us, this week could be one of treading water. The Fed goes into its quiet period before the April 28 rate decision. Combine that quietness with  a slate of economic releases that…

One of the unspoken cults in America is youth sports. Youth sports is a perfect place to project your adult shortcomings, fears, dreams, hopes, and aspirations onto your child, all under the guise of teaching teamwork. If uncontrolled, it can become an obsession, and the next thing you know, you are flying to some distant…

Treasury Rally Continues Despite Strong March Numbers The market received a boatload of data yesterday that was unambiguously strong and Treasury prices curiously rallied in response.  After reaching a pandemic high yield of 1.74% on March 31, the 10-year note has rallied throughout April dipping to 1.55% yesterday. That’s a level last seen on March…

Fund managers were polled by Bank of America recently and they now see inflation, a taper tantrum, and higher taxes as bigger risks than COVID-19. That poll came before the Johnson & Johnson vaccine news so don’t write-off the virus just yet but the trend is definitely in that direction. As for inflation, we got…

As a banker, you undoubtedly keep an eye on the trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. Their huge popularity must have you thinking about the future of money. Like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, you were probably against these currencies to start and now have come around to being more open to them,…

March CPI and Retail Sales With Plenty of Fed Speak It’s another full week of Fed speakers after an informative FOMC minutes from the March meeting and Fed speeches last week. A total of eleven Fed officials will offer their views with the highlight being Fed Chair Powell tomorrow at the Economic Club of Washington….

Some economists, Fed officials, and pundits are making the argument that while inflation may run hot for the next year or so, the risks of long-term high inflation is not pronounced and inflation will be capped at around 3% in the near future, and the probability of runaway inflation is next to nil.  This is…

Examining Bond Portfolio Trends: First Quarter 2021 Beginning in May 2012 we started tracking  portfolio trends of our bond accounting customers here at the Correspondent Division of SouthState Bank.  At present, we account for over 130 client portfolios with a combined book value of $14.3 billion, or $110 million on average per portfolio.  Twelve months…

So far this week we have been impressed with the ability of the Treasury market to essentially shrug off a string of strong first-tier reports. While the latest ISM Manufacturing Index set a 37-year high, the March jobs report soared over expectations, and the ISM Services Index hit a new all-time high for March, Treasuries…