Correspondent Blog

Community banks’ use of swaps (banks’ primary tool to hedge interest rate risk on loans) has increased substantially over the last ten years. The market expects the current inverted yield curve to remain through much of 2024 (based on long-term interest rates and the expected rate cuts in 2024).  Meanwhile, community banks face net interest…

Most borrowers have a rudimentary understanding of interest rates, the yield curve, forward rates, and forward premiums.  Commercial bankers are trusted advisors and have a unique opportunity to understand their client’s specific financial and personal situations, explain the basic concepts of capital markets, and offer prudent and objective advice to help customers reach their goals. …

In two articles in the past few weeks (here and here), we discussed how the “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment will affect the community bank sector – continued increase in the cost of funds (COF), steady yields on loans, and a decrease in net interest margin (NIM) will put severe pressure on ROE for new loan…

We analyzed the loan performance (return on equity, loan yield, fee income, and loan size) of hedged borrowings in a large group of community banks and compared this to the community bank industry averages.  We conclude that loan-level hedging offers community banks a strong competitive advantage in the current interest rate and competitive commercial loan…

The bigger risk to community banks’ business model is not a moderate recession induced by aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.  Instead, the more painful scenario for the banking industry is the following: no recession, short-term interest rates holding steady in anticipation of inflation reaching target rates, and a prolonged inverted yield curve….

Our previous article discussed how the banking industry is taking advantage of interest rate swaps to offer borrowers lower rates, allowing banks to earn higher yields, generate substantial fee income, and protect deposit relationships.  Of the largest 250 banks, 90% are using interest rate swaps, and because these largest 250 banks hold 83% of all…

With an inverted yield curve, borrowers have a pricing advantage to lock in long-term fixed-rate loans, while lenders strongly desire to limit loan duration.  One possible solution to this dichotomy is for banks to offer interest rate swaps to hedge individual loans.  This article will review domestic banks’ adoption of interest rate swaps.  Next week’s…

On our loan hedging desk, we work with hundreds of banks ranging in size from just over $100mm in assets to some national banks with over $1T in assets. Combined with our relationship profitability model, Loan Command, we see the pricing of thousands of commercial loans per month as small as $30k and as large…

Last week we spoke to a $1.2B community bank management team. The CLO was lamenting how he was losing quality loans and deposits to three aggressive national banks in the territory. An example was a $1.95mm owner-occupied CRE loan, where the borrower had multiple operating accounts totaling almost $500k. While this community bank is not…

Banks have ceased using LIBOR to price assets and liabilities after 2021. The remaining LIBOR cash and derivative instruments will continue until June 30, 2023. At that point, all LIBOR settings are expected to be discontinued, and most legacy LIBOR contracts will be converted to a Fallback Rate (effectively, compounding daily SOFR plus a spread…

This week the FOMC increased the Fed Funds rate by 75 bps, as expected to the 3.75% to 4.00% target range. The Effective Fed Funds rate jumped up and should stabilize at 3.83%, as did the 1-month term SOFR, to 3.79%.  The futures market now expects close to average odds of a 75bps increase in…

Over the last 15 years, an ever greater percentage of community banks have embraced some form of interest rate hedging.  Approximately 1,000 banks in the country use some form of hedging products to manage risk, generate fee income, or provide product offerings demanded by their customers.  Most of the top 100 banks (by asset size)…