3Q 2023 Commercial Loan Pricing Trends

Since our last update on 2Q credit HERE, 3Q commercial loan pricing trends start with a better economic picture as higher than-planned growth and softer inflationary data have changed part of the market’s outlook. The fear of recession has decreased in 3Q, and the new primary concern shifts back to interest rate risk and deposit…

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Bank Credit Risk: A Risk-Return Analysis

Most bankers are familiar with the concept of risk-return tradeoff, which states that potential return rises with an increase in risk.  Low-risk assets pay lower potential returns, whereas high-risk assets pay higher potential returns.  Further, some bankers are taught early in their careers that they are in the business of taking risks, and banks would…

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How Banks Use Debt Yield Ratio For Underwriting

In an article last week (HERE), we discussed why real estate loans underwritten at common debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and loan-to-value (LTV) levels may quickly become substandard credits if capitalization (cap) rates normalize, as expected because interest rates are rising.  Credits will deteriorate much faster if an economic downturn stresses net operating income (NOI)….

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The Problem With DSCR and LTV in Lending

Many community banks today are willing to underwrite real estate secured loans on just two metrics: debt-service-coverage ratio (DSCR) and loan-to-appraised value (LTV). Banks typically approve credits above 1.20x DSCR and below 75% LTV – with many loan-specific factors that may skew these acceptable levels. For competitive reasons, we see banks dipping to 1.10X DSCR,…

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Fixing Loan Selection Bias In Banking

At this point in the business cycle, we believe that community banks should migrate to higher credit quality loans.  However, in response to our last few blogs, some community bankers told us they have few opportunities to originate loans at 1.75X debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and sub 60% loan-to-value (LTV).   We believe that the…

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Rethinking The Adjustable Rate Loan Structure

Community banks have structured fixed-rate loans for many years with an adjustable repricing feature where a loan is fixed for a number of years and then resets based on a stated spread and an index. However, adjustable term loans have several drawbacks for banks, especially in a rising interest rate environment.  One of the most…

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Managing Loan to Value with Rising Rates

If your bank is like most of its peers, your credit policy permits loan to value (LTV) ratios somewhere between 65% and 85% depending on the category, business cycle, and other forms of support.  In today’s competitive lending market, many banks are pushing boundaries, and loan to values are creeping higher.  We argue that banks…

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Here is a Better Way To Stress Test Borrower Financials

Every community bank has a set of financial statement reports and ratio analyses to assess underwriting and credit risk.  The advent of credit spreading software such as CreditQuest has made this job very easy.   However, few banks take the extra step of modifying their reports and analysis based on the current economic cycle and market…

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Use This Trick To Better Diversify Your Loan Portfolio

You can slice and dice your credit portfolio all you want, but if you are not paying attention to cross-correlations, your efforts could be sub-optimal. For example, many banks separate their multifamily exposure away from their single-family exposure. In some markets, these two subsectors are almost 80% correlated. A drop in housing prices usually occurs…

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