Correspondent Blog

Analysts, regulators, legislators, and bankers have been attributing the root cause of SVB’s failure in the past month.  Some blame the dilution of the Dodd-Frank provisions, others the lack of oversight by regulators, and others still blame social media for exacerbating the deposit run.  The root cause of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) failure is poor…

In recent articles (here and here), we discussed why banks that take the interest rate movement risk demonstrate lower performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Empirical evidence, historical bank failures, and common sense teach us that many risks do not translate to higher yields. The second article compared and contrasted community banks’ pay-for-risk…

In a previous article, we discussed the three generic shapes of the yield curve:  normal, inverted, and flat. We also pointed out that the current inverted yield curve is unusual and is expected to last for the near term.  The average community bank’s cost of funding is highly correlated to Fed Funds and SOFR (for…

In the last 12 months, the Federal Reserve went from arguing that inflation was a transitory phenomenon to raising interest rates to fight runaway inflation by three percent in just six months.  The result is not only higher rates but the most severe interest rate hiking cycle in the past 35 years –  and it…

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised short-term interest rates by 3.00% in the six months between March and September.  The market is now forecasting an additional 1.25% in hikes by year’s end, with the next move coming on November 3rd.  Many borrowers and market participants have been surprised by the speed of…

Last week the Federal Reserve again raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – and again, that was in line with the market’s expectation. The question is when will the Fed stop, and what will be the terminal Fed Funds rate? We do not believe that the Fed’s “dot plot” fully reflects…

For decades community banks have taken on fixed rate loan risk mostly through the offering of five-year, fixed-rate, commercial term loans. This is probably the most popular structure for real estate-secured term credit at community banks. Now may be the right time for community banks to abandon this strategy – both for the borrowers who…

The Federal Reserve is rapidly changing the interest rate environment to fight inflation.  The Fed’s actions are forcing lenders and borrowers to consider ways to protect cash flow, credit, liquidity, and interest rate risks.  Many borrowers ask lenders how they can use swaps, caps, floors, and collars to protect their businesses and lower borrowing costs. …

Your bank’s  deposit beta is going to rapidly change. In our previous article (HERE), we reviewed the banking industry’s cost of funding earning assets (COF), and we compared how community banks’ COF behaves relative to national banks in a rising interest rate cycle.  We showed that the average community bank’s COF is highly correlated to…

In a recent blog [Here], we argued that banks are almost always in an inferior position by not re-quoting the loan rate with market movement until the loan closes. We think that when banks book a fixed-rate loan, the fixed-rate must be finalized at the closing table; otherwise, banks give borrowers a free option that…

Community banks have structured fixed-rate loans for many years with an adjustable repricing feature where a loan is fixed for a number of years and then resets based on a stated spread and an index. However, adjustable term loans have several drawbacks for banks, especially in a rising interest rate environment.  One of the most…

We see three expected developments in 2022 that will make a loan hedging program an essential competitive advantage for community banks. Increasing short-term rates, higher expected inflation, and increased need for fee income will significantly benefit those community banks that can offer a seamless and document-friendly loan hedging program.  While we have our ARC Program…