What Will Be The Fed’s Terminal Fed Funds Rate?

Last week the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by another 75 basis points – that was no surprise to the market.  However, in Powell’s unscripted remarks at the press conference, he stated that interest rates have reached a “neutral level.”  The market reacted to those words with equities and bonds both rallying.  We…

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How to Best Use Volatility Instruments In Banking – Part II

Last week we discussed how lenders might use swaps, caps, floors, and collars to help borrowers manage borrowing costs.  We outlined how the market values swaps and volatility instruments (like caps and floors), and we reviewed the fundamental reasons for how and why these hedging instruments are applied to commercial loans.  In this article, we…

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How To Prepare For The Risk of Stagflation in Banking

We recently posted an article (HERE) about how the Federal Reserve is bursting the everything bubble, and this will cause pain for some banks in the form of interest rate, credit, and liquidity risk.  One of the likely outcomes of this tightening cycle is stagflation, which will cause cash flow constraints for borrowers and create…

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Optimizing Loan Duration

Customers and competitors are challenging community banks to extend loan duration – borrowers are eager to lock fixed rates before they rise further, and many competitors are happy to oblige.  But what are the optimal fixed terms for community banks given today’s interest rate, credit, and liquidity environment?  While every bank’s mix of deposits and…

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Deposit Behavior In This Rate Cycle – Part III

In two recent articles, we reviewed the banking industry’s deposit behavior with regard to cost of funding earning assets (COF) (HERE), and we compared how community banks’ COF behaves relative to national banks in a rising interest rate cycle (HERE).  We demonstrated that the average community bank’s COF is highly correlated to short-term interest rates…

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How The Fed Will Impact Your Deposit Beta

Your bank’s  deposit beta is going to rapidly change. In our previous article (HERE), we reviewed the banking industry’s cost of funding earning assets (COF), and we compared how community banks’ COF behaves relative to national banks in a rising interest rate cycle.  We showed that the average community bank’s COF is highly correlated to…

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Forecasting Cost of Funds Given Fed Moves

Based on the futures market, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate to 3.00% at its December 2022 meeting. The Fed will also aggressively shrink its balance sheet to tame unwanted inflation. These two Fed moves, along with the economic environment and customer behavior will impact your forecasting of your cost…

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What Term Lending Index Should Banks Adopt?

Banks have ceased using LIBOR to price assets and liabilities after 2021. However, some community banks are still deciding on the correct term lending index to adopt. Many banks are uncertain that they have chosen the best term index for their products and markets. We believe that having more options for community banks is beneficial….

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How To Take Advantage of the FOMC Meeting

Last week’s FOMC Meeting resulted in an increase in short-term interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and projected seven rate hikes in 2022 and another four hikes in 2023.  The FOMC projects the Fed Funds rate to reach 1.875% by the end of the year and 2.75% next year (see DOT plot below).  However,…

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Why Now Is The Time To Use Swap Spreads For Loan Pricing

Community banks face intense competition for profitable borrowers and relationships.  With short-term interest rates rising and long-term rates still at historically low levels, all bankers should understand how swap spreads may provide a competitive lending advantage.  In this current market, swap spreads are negative, and banks that can utilize swap spreads in pricing loans gain…

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Rate Locks – When and How To Lock a Borrower’s Loan Rate

In a recent blog [Here], we argued that banks are almost always in an inferior position by not re-quoting the loan rate with market movement until the loan closes. We think that when banks book a fixed-rate loan, the fixed-rate must be finalized at the closing table; otherwise, banks give borrowers a free option that…

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Loan Hedging May Save Your Bank

We see three expected developments in 2022 that will make a loan hedging program an essential competitive advantage for community banks. Increasing short-term rates, higher expected inflation, and increased need for fee income will significantly benefit those community banks that can offer a seamless and document-friendly loan hedging program.  While we have our ARC Program…

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