Correspondent Blog

Historically bankers used the Treasury, FHLB, or swap yield curve to discern the future path of interest rates. At the time of this writing, the three-month Treasury-Bill is yielding four basis points, the two-year note is 0.59%, and the 10-year note is yielding 1.33%. Historically, such a yield curve prognosticated minimal interest rate changes over…

The graph below demonstrates loan repricing changes quarter-over-quarter from June 2020 to June 2021 for banks in three asset bands (under $1B, $1-3B, and over $25B).  The top three stacks of the bars show fixed-rate loans that reprice 3-5 years, 5-15 years, and over 15 years.  The bottom three stacks show floating and adjustable-rate loans. …

In a recent article (Here), we discussed how lenders might help borrowers decide if and when to refinance debt and why lenders, as trusted advisors, should have a borrower’s best interests as their primary objective.  We also addressed how lenders should compare a borrower’s refinancing costs now versus waiting, and we shared an Excel model…

The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, was clear last week that the central bank is highly likely to start reducing asset purchases in November and complete the process by mid-2022.  As shown in the dots plot, the FOMC members also expressed an inclination to raise interest rates next year (see graph below) – a shift…

The market is now pricing Fed Fund hikes beginning in 2022, and the proposed fiscal stimulus in the form of two separate infrastructure bills totaling $4.5T has created a new sense of optimism for FOMC members. However, the lingering concern that many bankers hold is can the country (US Department of the Treasury) afford to…

There appears to be some complacency regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies in 2021 and 2022. The ten-year Treasury, around 1.35%, may be sending a short-term signal on liquidity versus a long-term prediction on inflation.  Community bankers need to factor in the high probability (50% to 75%) that tapering will start in 2021 and not…

For decades, community banks have structured term loans as 5-year fixed-rate facilities.  In the last six months, the percentage of 5-year fixed-rate loans at community banks has increased by approximately 25%, but this same bucket has held steady at larger banks (those over $25B in assets).  We believe that now is the right time for…

At SouthState Bank, we are using a tested strategy to increase loan revenue by 20% and decrease interest rate risk by 80%.  We are achieving this result on our better credit quality commercial loans without any gimmicks or confusion to the borrower.  We have developed a technique and a loan structure to assist bankers who:…

Some economists, Fed officials, and pundits are making the argument that while inflation may run hot for the next year or so, the risks of long-term high inflation is not pronounced and inflation will be capped at around 3% in the near future, and the probability of runaway inflation is next to nil.  This is…

This year may be the right time for your bank to embrace a loan hedging program.  With the economy recovering from a pandemic and the possibility of stoking inflation, banks that can offer borrowers more flexible loan structures may be in a better position to win more and better quality loans.  While the Federal Reserve…